Skip to main content

Military Health System

Test of Sitewide Banner

This is a test of the sitewide banner capability. In the case of an emergency, site visitors would be able to visit the news page for addition information.

Surveillance Snapshot: A Simple Model Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 on Lost Duty Days Among U.S. Service Members

Image of Cover 4 Snapshot_ A simple model. U.S. Navy Hospital Corpsman 2nd Class Julian Gordon, left, a preventative medicine technician with Marine Rotational Force - Darwin, administers a COVID-19 test to a U.S. Marine with MRF-D, at Royal Australian Air Force Base, Darwin, NT, Australia, March 22, 2021. Marines and Sailors with MRF-D are required to conduct strict COVID-19 mitigation procedures prior to arrival in Darwin, in compliance with Northern Territory Health Authorities. All service members must provide three documented negative COVID-19 swab tests throughout their travel and prior to being released from a 14-day quarantine period. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Micha Pierce)

Since the start of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Department of Defense (DOD) has reported 226,510 cases of COVID-19 among military members as of 25 Aug. 2021.1 Managing COVID-19 infections and implementing quarantines of their contacts could alter the training and mission plans for most, if not all, military units. Although there was robust prognostication regarding the impact of COVID-19 on lost duty days in the early months of the pandemic,2,3 little has been published in this area since then.

Simple modeling can provide an important estimate of the impact of COVID-19 on lost duty days among U.S. service members. The model used in this analysis assumes that each reported case undergoes 10 days of isolation and allows for variation in the number of close contacts (e.g., low [2], medium [4] and high [7]) and the length of quarantine (7 or 14 days). This model estimates the impact of a single COVID-19 case for each of the possible values of close contacts and quarantine length and also extrapolates the DOD-wide impact in terms of number of lost duty days (Table).

The model is a gross approximation of lost duty days and may both underestimate and overestimate lost duty days due to several factors. The model ignores the lost duty days of the 34 deaths and 2,036 hospitalizations among military service members reported by DOD since the start of the pandemic.1 This model also does not take into account the indirect lost duty days affecting service members charged with special duties in tracking, caring for, and administratively handling service members in isolation and quarantine. It also ignores the lost duty days of cases diagnosed in family members and the impact of lost duty days on non-military close contacts, including family members and DOD civilian employees. Furthermore, this model does not estimate the cumulative impact on unit readiness of multiple simultaneous or consecutive COVID-19 infections within a command. Finally, this model may overestimate lost duty days by including weekend days and it is unclear if the military members included in the DOD case report1 include inactivated reserve/Guard members who may not be on duty.

The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely impacted the availability of service members to unit Commanders. Using this model, one can estimate a best-case scenario of the loss of 0.71% of all duty days, with a worst-case scenario of the loss of around 3.2% of all duty days in the DOD during the period of March 1, 2020 to Aug. 25, 2021. When this loss is placed in the context of 3 to 8 members of a unit being unavailable for a mission, deployment, or training event due to a single infection, the impact on unit readiness is easily seen. Preventing a single case has a far-reaching impact on readiness, conserving 24–98 duty days of availability to Commanders. Although some service members were able to recover a portion of these lost days by teleworking, they represent the minority and were primarily among higher ranks.

Prevention of COVID-19 infections can have a significant positive impact on service member availability for missions and training. Ongoing efforts using all available infection prevention tools, including immunization, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and policies designed to prevent new infections should be pursued by Commanders and leaders at all levels of the DOD in order to optimize training tempo and readiness activities.

Author affiliations: Department of Public Health, Madigan Army Medical Center, U.S. Army, WA (LTC Mease and CPT Smith).

Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy of the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.

References

  1. Coronavirus: DOD Response. U.S. Department of Defense. Published 3 May 2021. Accessed 25 Aug. 2021. https://www.defense.gov/Explore/Spotlight/Coronavirus
  2. Burke T, Dycus C, O'Hanlon M, Reid E, Worst J. COVID-19 and military readiness: Preparing for the long game. Brookings. Published April 22, 2020. Accessed 4 May 2021. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/04/22/covid-19-and-military-readiness-preparing-for-the-long-game
  3. DiEuliis D, Junor L. Ready or Not: Regaining Military Readiness during COVID19. Inst Natl Strateg Stud. Published online April 10, 2020. Accessed 4 May 2021. https://inss.ndu.edu/Media/News/Article/2145282/ready-or-not-regaining-military-readiness-during-covid19 

TABLE. Impact of quarantine length (7 versus 14 days) on military readiness, by lost duty days after a COVID-19 infection, as of 25 Aug 2021

You also may be interested in...

Emergency Mental Health Care Utilization and the COVID-19 Pandemic Among U.S. Armed Forces and Dependents, 1 January 2017 to 31 March 2021

Article
12/1/2022
Cover 3

The COVID-19 pandemic brought with it concerns for the effects on mental health, from both the disease itself and the steps taken to combat it.

Brief Review: Clinical and Epidemiologic Characteristics of Genital Skin Lesions Due to Infectious Causes

Article
12/1/2022
Brief Review: Clinical and Epidemiologic Characteristics of Genital Skin Lesions Due to Infectious Causes

During the current global mpox outbreak, many cases have presented atypically with skin lesions localized to the genital and perianal areas.

MSMR Vol. 29 No. 11 - November 2022

Report
11/1/2022

A monthly publication of the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Division. This issue of the peer-reviewed journal contains the following articles: Surveillance trends for SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory pathogens among U.S. Military Health System Beneficiaries, Sept. 27, 2020 – Oct. 2,2021; Establishment of SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance within the MHS during March 1 – Dec. 31 2020; Suicide behavior among heterosexual, lesbian/gay, and bisexual active component service members in the U.S. Armed Forces; Brief report: Phase I results using the Virtual Pooled Registry Cancer Linkage system (VPR-CLS) for military cancer surveillance.

Brief Report: Pediatric Vaccine Completion and Compliance Among Infants Born to Female Active Duty Service Members, 2006–2016

Article
11/1/2022
4

Rotavirus gastroenteritis is the leading cause of diarrhea-associated morbidity and mortality among children under age 5 worldwide.

Update: Cold Injuries, Active and Reserve Components, U.S. Armed Forces, July 2017–June 2022

Article
11/1/2022
1

Cold injuries are of significant military concern because of their adverse impact on operations and the high financial costs of treatment and disability.

In-Theater Mental Health Disorders Among U.S. Soldiers Deployed Between 2008 and 2013

Article
11/1/2022
3

Mental health is a significant concern within the U.S. military, and service members are at substantial risk for developing an array of mental health conditions including anxiety, depression, stress/adjustment issues, and sleep-related disorders.

MSMR Vol. 29 No. 10 - October 2022

Report
10/1/2022

A monthly publication of the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Division. This issue of the peer-reviewed journal contains the following articles: Surveillance trends for SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory pathogens among U.S. Military Health System Beneficiaries, Sept. 27, 2020 – Oct. 2,2021; Establishment of SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance within the MHS during March 1 – Dec. 31 2020; Suicide behavior among heterosexual, lesbian/gay, and bisexual active component service members in the U.S. Armed Forces; Brief report: Phase I results using the Virtual Pooled Registry Cancer Linkage system (VPR-CLS) for military cancer surveillance.

Update: Contraception Among Active Component Service Women, U.S. Armed Forces, 2017–2021

Article
10/1/2022
2

This report summarizes the annual prevalence of permanent sterilization, as well as use of long- and short-acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs and SARCs, respectively), contraceptive counseling services, and use of emergency contraceptives from 2017 through 2021 among active component U.S. service women.

Surveillance Snapshot: Influenza Immunization Among U.S. Armed Forces Healthcare Workers, August 2017–April 2022

Article
10/1/2022
3

Immunization Among U.S. Armed Forces Healthcare Workers

Viral hepatitis C, active component, U.S. Armed Forces, 2011–2020

Article
10/1/2022
1

This study reports updated numbers and incidence rates of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among active component members of the U.S. military using a revised case definition during a 10-year surveillance period between 2011 and 2020.

MSMR Vol. 29 No. 09 - September 2022

Report
9/1/2022

A monthly publication of the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Division. This issue of the peer-reviewed journal contains the following articles: Surveillance trends for SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory pathogens among U.S. Military Health System Beneficiaries, Sept. 27, 2020 – Oct. 2,2021; Establishment of SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance within the MHS during March 1 – Dec. 31 2020; Suicide behavior among heterosexual, lesbian/gay, and bisexual active component service members in the U.S. Armed Forces; Brief report: Phase I results using the Virtual Pooled Registry Cancer Linkage system (VPR-CLS) for military cancer surveillance.

Update: Routine Screening for Antibodies to Human Immunodeficiency Virus, U.S. Armed Forces, Active and Reserve Components, January 2017–June 2022

Article
9/1/2022
Cover 1

This report provides an update through June 2022 of routine screening results for antibodies to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) among members of the active and reserve components of the U.S. Armed Forces. During the full 5 and 1/2-year surveillance period, the HIV seropositivity rates for active component service members were 0.21 positives per 1,000 members of the Army, 0.24 for the Navy, 0.16 for the Marine Corps, and 0.14 for the Air Force.

Letter to the Editor: Clarification of Hepatitis C Virus Screening with Case Definitions and Prevalence Among Trainees

Article
9/1/2022
Cover 3

We read with interest the brief report regarding the prevalence of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) infection in basic military trainee blood donors by Kasper and colleagues in the November 2021 issue of the Medical Surveillance Monthly Report (MSMR),1 an update of a previous similar report

Evaluation of the MSMR Surveillance Case Definition for Incident Cases of Hepatitis C

Article
9/1/2022
Cover 2

The validity of military hepatitis C virus (HCV) surveillance data is uncertain due to the potential for misclassification introduced when using administrative databases for surveillance purposes. The objectives of this study were to assess the validity of the surveillance case definition used by the Medical Surveillance Monthly Report (MSMR) for HCV, the over and underestimation of cases from surveillance data, and the true burden of HCV disease in the U.S. military.

Brief Report: Menstrual Suppression Among U.S. Female Service Members in the Millennium Cohort Study

Article
9/1/2022
Cover 4

Menstrual suppression allows for the control or complete suppression of menstrual periods through hormonal contraceptive methods. In addition to preventing pregnancy, suppression can alleviate medical conditions and symptoms associated with menstruation such as iron deficiency anemia,1 eliminate logistical hygiene-related challenges, and improve quality of life.

Page 2 of 15 , showing items 16 - 30
First < 1 2 3 4 5  ... > Last 
Refine your search
Last Updated: October 26, 2022
Follow us on Instagram Follow us on LinkedIn Follow us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter Follow us on YouTube Sign up on GovDelivery