COVID-19, Respiratory Disease Surveillance and Forecasting

The Innovation and Evaluation Section is a crucial component of the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Division Integrated Biosurveillance Branch that provides vital predictive analytics about respiratory disease threats, including COVID-19.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, I&E developed a “Markets to Watch” product and an associated interactive dashboard that combines civilian and military data sources to highlight trends in COVID-19 activity and allow near real-time monitoring of DOD health status across Military Health System Markets.

I&E also generates one- to four-week forecasts of respiratory disease activity in MHS Markets, including COVID-19, COVID-like illness, influenza-like illness, and respiratory syncytial virus, in collaboration with external partners and CDC. Forecasting results are distributed weekly and uploaded to the AFHSD-IB Respiratory Disease Forecasting Dashboard. These data provide senior leaders with a crucial planning tool and allow them to anticipate potential threats to military health and readiness.

Key Benefits:

• Data analysis and modeling capabilities for respiratory diseases of military relevance
• Weekly updates highlight MHS Markets with increasing COVID-19 activity
• Forecasts for several respiratory syndromes, including CLI, ILI, and RSV
• Interactive dashboards for planning and resource allocation in the MHS
• Weekly forecasting to anticipate increasing respiratory disease activity, which may impact military health and readiness